Predictions For Video In 2019


Jan 11, 2019 by Mark Maier

MediaPost just uploaded a list of Video predictions for 2019.  It will be interesting to look back at this time next year and see how right or wrong they are...

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Cord-Cutting

  • “Expect 2019 pay TV losses to continue at a similar pace to ’17 and ’18 as consumers continue to rebel against the rising price of pay TV amidst the continued emergence of cheap entertainment alternatives.”


Satellite Declines 

  • The analysts predict that satellite TV subscriptions will continue to decline, forecasting a drop of 2.5 million customers in 2019, up from a drop of 2.1 million in 2018.


Peak TV

  • Margins will continue to erode for TV content producers, Wlodarczak and Wieser said. 
  • Content packagers or networks will need to increase their programming spend at a rate that likely exceeds what consumers will pay in order to maintain revenue growth and relevance, the analysts said. 
  • "This will contribute to ongoing margin erosion, especially as we see national TV advertising gently declining on an ongoing basis.”


The Wide World Of Sports 

  • As consumers move away from cable and satellite, new providers will step forward to provide the collective sports fix, in Wedbush's view. 
  • “It seems inevitable that one of Amazon, Google or Facebook will aggressively continue to push for more top-tier sports rights, especially as some major packages are soon up for renewal,” Wlodarczak and Wieser said. 
  • “Of course, some leagues may prefer not to associate themselves with Facebook at any price,” the pair said. 
  • Spending by "deep-pocket" companies on sports content will inflate its price, the analysts said. 


Other Predictions 

  • “Cable company share buybacks should accelerate materially in ’19, providing a steady wind at the back of stocks.”
  • Fixed 5G fails to penetrate the mass market and remains an unlikely major competitive threat to cable data.
  • Cable secures a more attractive wireless mobile virtual network operator as Sprint Corp and T-Mobile Us continue to work on a merger deal , whether the merger is approved or not.
  • Netflix, Inc, which Wedbush rates with a Buy, has won the race for over-the-top streaming services and should continue to see healthy subscriber growth in 2019, even with the launch of a Walt Disney competitor, in the sell-side firm's view. 
  • Comcast Corporation, for which Pivotal has a Buy rating, stops disclosing its individual subscribers and switches its focus to “net new customers,or customer retention.”