MediaPost's MediaBuyerPlanner states "Leading Economic Index Suggests Worst Is Over" with backing information from several sources pointing out that the slow recovery has begun, here is the complete article.....
" The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) rose for the eighth straight month in November 2009. Combined with a slight increase in the Conference Board Coincident Economic Index (CEI), this continues to signal a likely bottoming out of the current U.S. economic recession. The LEI, which measures economic activity for the next six months, increased 0.9%, from 104 to 104.9. This follows a 0.3% increase in October and 1.2% increase in September, and marks the LEIs eighth straight month of growth following 20 straight months of decline. In addition, the CEI, which measures current economic activity, increased 0.2%, from 99.9 to 100.1, following flat performance in October and a fractional decrease in September, writes Retailer Daily. A score of 100 marks the performance level of both the LEI and CEI in 2004.
Three other consumer indices also paint a somewhat optimistic picture of the direction of the U.S. economy, although not all recent consumer and economic research suggests an end to the recession is near. The Deloitte Consumer Spending Index, which attempts to track consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, rose 8.9% in November 2009, following a 15.7% jump in October and an 11.6% hike in September 2009.
November retail sales figures correlate with an increased willingness among consumers to spend money. According to the October 2009 Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey from the U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. retail and food service sales rose 1.3%, from $347.5 billion to $352.1 billion. It is worth noting that U.S. retail and food service sales have been in a seesaw pattern in recent months, with sales falling 1.5% in September and 0.2% in July, but rising 1.4% in October and 2.7% in August.
In addition, following two straight months of decline driven by consumer pessimism in both their current and future outlook, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index grew from 48.7 to 49.5 in November 2009.
However, the most recent Consumer Reports Index offers a mixed perspective on the state of U.S. consumers. It shows improved buying patterns and decreased financial troubles, but also demonstrates declining financial confidence, continuing job losses and increased consumer stress.
According to Ken Goldstein, economist at the Conference Board, the LEI indicates that next year should offer a marked improvement from this year in terms of economic performance. Looking ahead, we can expect a slowly improving economy through 2010, said Goldstein."
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