Reports of the economy rebound over various parts of the United States are good news for the industry and for our clients as consumers start to spend again and business adapts to the new "normal" in buying trends....
"For the fourth month in a row, same store sales forecasts have improved with 18 of 27 retailers tracked now predicted to experience growth, according to ForecastIQ (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC). Indicators are that the recovery is broadening, but consumer mindset is still fragile with about 30% confident/very confident in the chances for a strong economy, suggesting that retailers should tread lightly.
Total Number for Retailers Tracked | | APR-2010 | MAR-2010 | FEB-2010 | JAN-2010 |
| Almost certain increase | 8 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| Likely increase | 10 | 7 | 8 | 4 |
| Flat | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| Likely decline | 4 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
| Almost certain decline | 4 | 7 | 6 | 11 |
An almost certain increase indicator for April means that in May and June, retailers are almost certain to experience same store sales growth from the same period a year ago. March indicators were for April and May, etc.
In the April forecast, theres a good mix of retailers almost certain to see growth over last years sales including specialty (Aeropostale, Buckle and Wet Seal), warehouse clubs (BJs and Costco), those with a discount offering (Ross and TJX) and Nordstrom.
A variety of retailers such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Childrens Place, Freds and Neiman Marcus are predicted to likely see an increase. On the other hand, Catos, Dillards and Hot Topic are likely/almost certain to post a decline through June. Its still touch and go for Bonton, Gap and JCPenney; all three are likely to see a decline but are in a better position than they were a year ago. "